Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Fevertree - Entering into an upgrade cycle

    Wayne Brown
    Wayne Brown

    Analyst - Consumer

    Anubhav Malhotra
    Anubhav Malhotra

    Analyst - Consumer

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    Forecasts have been rebased which should (could) be the last downgrade in our view. We now move into a period which could lead to multi-year upgrades driven by gross margin recovery via the return of a full-year of on-trade sales, the ramp up of local production in the US, as well as further localization efforts in production and sourcing in the US and Australia. Management remains confident of achieving 150bps a year of underlying gross margin improvements over the next few years without help from lower material or logistics costs. The shares have declined 34% YTD and valuation at 24x EV/EBITDA and 38x PE appears more reasonable compared to 10-year average of 35x EV/EBITDA and 48x PE multiples. We raise our recommendation to BUY from HOLD reflecting the 34% YTD share price fall.