Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Equiniti - Fundamentals unchanged, but timing of recovery uncertain

    James Allen
    James Allen

    Analyst - Support Services & Special Situations

    Sanjay Vidyarthi
    Joe Brent
    1 April 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    FY 20 cash EPS of 9.1p was 1% ahead of our estimate of 9.0p, helped by a lower cash tax rate. Despite a resilient customer base, we reduce our FY 21 cash EPS estimate by 10% given the uncertainty over the timing of the recovery. Encouragingly, FY 20 net debt (including leases) reduced from £344m to £308m, or 3.4x net debt/EBITDA, and was better than our estimate of £332m. The business continues to de-risk and deleverage and we reduce our FY 21 net debt including leases from £280m to £265m given the better starting position. Order intake, including renewals, was 33% ahead of FY 19 in FY 20, which should help to drive a recovery in H2 21. We retain our BUY recommendation and 170p target price.