Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Costain - Consulting alone justifies the valuation

    Alex O’Hanlon
    Alex O’Hanlon

    Analyst - Support Services

    Joe Brent
    Joe Brent

    Analyst - Support Services & Special Situations

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    FY 21 FD EPS was 18% ahead of estimates and there was an £8.4m non-underlying write-back on A465. A full and final settlement was made on the National Grid contract in February, capping the downside but leaving some upside. A new Water provision of £6m was an irritation. However, this was taken above the line, consensus was still beaten and there should be a partial reversal in FY 22. There is a high level of tendering activity and we expect that CP7 will turn out to be a much bigger opportunity than CP6. If we assume 30% of sales relates to Consulting on a 6% margin and 12x multiple, that would imply a negative EV of £84m for the rest of the business. A CY 22 P/E of 4.5x and target P/E of 2.2x are too cheap. BUY, TP 80p.