Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Babcock - No need for equity and cheap post disposals

    James Allen
    James Allen

    Analyst - Support Services & Special Situations

    Joe Brent
    Alex O’Hanlon
    14 April 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    Management announced a £1.7bn write-off and the shares increased 32%. Deservedly so. Management believes it can avoid a dilutive equity issue and, given more detail, we agree. Our analysis shows that recovery stories are hard to deliver, but share price recovery is more likely when dilution is avoided. Our debt bridge to FY 24 suggests that management needs to generate £380m of net disposal proceeds and c. £200m of FCFe over three years to get to 1.25x EBITDA. The review has reduced the long-term margin take and profits by c. £30m p.a. However, c. £40m of cost savings mean that the EPS cut is modest, and the balance sheet review will help. The shares are trading on a CY 22 P/E of 10.2x post dilution. TP from 350p to 375p.