We expect strong YoY earnings growth for 4Q22 (after soft 2Q22 and 3Q22 numbers), driven by rising insurance premium sales. TQM’s stock price fall makes for a generous dividend yield.
Solid insurance premium sales growth for the next several years
Regardless of whether vehicle-buying shifts from internal combustion engines to EV, car owners will continue taking out insurance (people who buy vehicles on HP have to take out insurance). Hence, we expect a strong TQM insurance premium sales CAGR of 19% for 2022-26 (led by motor insurance) to Bt42bn in 2026 (below management’s target of Bt50bn), led by an expanding client base and supported by subsidiaries’ insurance premium sales growth (TQR Co Ltd, True-Life Broker Co Ltd, and True Extra broker Co Ltd). There would be scope for upside to our assumption if TQM were to hit its insurance premium sales target.