Strategy Note /

Food prices simmer, down 1% month on month in April but still up 74% from trough

  • Food prices down 1% mom in April (versus up 13% in March), up 30% yoy, up 74% from May 2020 trough

  • High household spend on (and high imports of) food in Bangladesh, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines

  • Implies ongoing pressure on inflation, fiscal spend (where governments subsidise), trade balance and social stability

Food prices simmer, down 1% month on month in April but still up 74% from trough
Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik

Strategy & Head of Equity Research

Tellimer Research
7 May 2022
Published byTellimer Research

The latest UN FAO World Food Price index (published on 6 May) declined slightly from the prior month's all-time high: down 1% in April, but up 30% yoy, and up 74% from the May 2020 trough.

After two months of very sharp yoy acceleration, following the Russia-Ukraine war, this is a small relief. Both countries are major global exporters of specific food commodities – for example wheat, at 18% and 11%, respectively. Although military setbacks, sanctions, and domestic pressure on President Putin may lead Russia to de-escalate, the moment of any lasting negotiated settlement still appears far off.

The index had reached a new all-time high in March: the move up in the overall food index over the past year or so is now much greater than that seen prior to the 'Arab Spring' of 2011 (a 74% increase compared with a 42% increase).

This latest reading suggests that while conditions have not deteriorated, they remain acutely difficult for countries with high household spending on food and high dependency on imports of food – for example, Bangladesh, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Philippines.

And within this subset – excluding Egypt and Nigeria – there is also net import exposure to high crude oil imports, and the 44% increase in Brent ytd is clearly very unfavourable for them.

The emerging market beneficiaries from high commodity food prices, at least from a trade perspective, are the following:

  • Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam

  • Africa: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe

  • Europe: Iceland, Poland, (Ukraine prior to the Russian invasion)

  • LatAm: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru

Among the components of the food index, vegetable oil and cereals were down, whereas sugar, meat, and dairy were up.

  • Vegetable oils down 6% mom but up 46% yoy, driven by demand destruction (rationing) amid such higher prices, although there is risk that prices of the palm oil component head back up with the knock-on effect of high crude oil prices (transportation costs) and should the Indonesia export ban last longer than we expect.

  • Cereals down 0.4% mom and up 34% yoy, helped by seasonal maize harvests in LatAm, but wheat, which is a key food import for Egypt, was up 0.2%, as Black Sea exports disruption and adverse US crop conditions persist.

  • Sugar up 3% mom and up 22% yoy, driven partly by the prospect of greater use of of sugarcane for ethanol during prevailing high crude oil prices and 7% appreciation of the Brazil Real, with the main exporters Brazil, Thailand and India.

  • Meat up 2% mom and up 17% yoy, driven partly by avian flu outbreaks, with emerging market exporters including Brazil, India and Argentina.

  • Dairy – up 1% mom and 24% yoy, where developed markets are the main exporters.

The next update of this index is due on 3 June.

Food prices down 1% mom and up 30% yoy in April

When determining interest rates, policymakers tend to focus on core inflation and treat some of the variation in food items as seasonal or temporary. However, for governments that subsidise food items, this food price spike creates fiscal stress and, for countries reliant on food imports, it drives a deterioration in the trade balance.

Furthermore, for the mass, poorer segment of the population, food inflation is generally an acute concern – the 'Arab Spring' coincided with a c40% increase in 2010-11 – and this translates into risk for governments facing re-election or attempting to implement structural reforms that challenge vested interests. Recent protests in Tunisia, for example, are as much about frustration with cost of living increases, in the absence of employment growth, as they are about Covid management and corruption.

Countries with both a high proportion of household expenditure on food and a significant net import bill for food include Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines in Asia, Egypt and Nigeria in Africa, and almost all of the Middle East (particularly Jordan and Lebanon).

Food accounts for a large proportion of household expenditure in countries such as Argentina, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Morocco and Ukraine but, at the macroeconomic level, this is offset by net exports of food. That, of course, does not mitigate the risk of social unrest from the poorer segments of these countries if the bump in export revenues does not trickle down.

Emerging market consumption exposure to food prices

Emerging market trade exposure to food prices

Our Country Index in this context

Exposure to net fuel and food imports are factors incorporated into our EM Country Index, where the weight attached to these factors can be customised.

Related reading

Real interest rates in EM after the US Fed hike, May 2022

Emerging-Frontier Equity Monthly – April: Wall of Worry, Apr 2022

Indonesia Palm Oil export ban cannot last, Apr 2022

MENA’s reliance on Russian/Ukrainian wheat imports raises risk of hunger (Curran), Mar 2022

Russian oil embargo impact, Mar 2022

Emerging market commodities hedge, Feb 2022

Commodities back on top of Technology in EM equities, Feb 2022