Equity Analysis /
Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte: Flash OMA: Strong sequential improvement in March passengers

  • Oma registered a 3.0% y/y fall in March’s passengers, far exceeding our estimate of a ~27.0% drop, and a 53.4% q/q rise

  • Though we expected a more natural basis, figures showed better demand due to a positive effect from the Easter beginning

  • It should be noted that by April, we expect an inflection point that will result in annual traffic growth in next months

Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez
Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez

Senior Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure, Materials and Transportation

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Marissa Garza Ostos
Marissa Garza Ostos

Head of Equity Research

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Banorte
8 April 2021
Published byBanorte

Oma released March passenger traffic for the 13 airports it operates, which showed a 3.0% y/y decline, far exceeding our expectation of a ~27.0% drop and showing a large 53.4% y/y growth. Even though we expected a more natural comparative basis (start of the pandemic in March 2020) and a positive calendar effect due to the beginning of Easter —last year it was in April—, the figures showed a better-than-expected performance in demand.

Domestic passengers fell 2.3% y/y (the main one, Monterrey, declined 7.2%), while international passengers showed an 8.5% y/y contraction (Monterrey posted a 37.6% increase). In total, the Monterrey airport —44.3% of total passengers in March— showed a 2.6% y/y fall.

Positive implication: Oma's passengers in March surpassed our estimates, and it should be noted that by April, we expect an inflection point that will result in year-over-year traffic growth in the coming months. Therefore, we will be watching for the group's comments regarding demand expectations when it publishes its 4Q20 figures in the coming weeks.