Equity Analysis /
Mexico

ASUR: Flash ASUR: Inflection point in March passengers is brought forward

  • Asur's March traffic rose 11.3% y/y, due to a more natural comparative basis and a favorable effect due to Easter start

  • A 28.7% y/y rise in domestic traffic was partially offset by a 15.9% drop in international from stricter travel measures

  • Asur's passengers showed the inflection point we expected in April. Thus, we will see further growth in coming months

Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez
Jose Itzamna Espitia Hernandez

Senior Equity Research Analyst, Infrastructure, Materials and Transportation

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Marissa Garza Ostos
Marissa Garza Ostos

Head of Equity Research

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Banorte
8 April 2021
Published byBanorte

Asur released total passenger figures for March with a 11.3% y/y growth —including the 9 airports it operates in Mexico, the Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico (LMM) and the 6 airports in Colombia (Airplan) —. There was a more natural comparative basis for the pandemic onset in March 2020, as well as a favorable effect from the start of Easter this month vs. April in 2020, which also supported better demand performance. It is worth mentioning that the increase in domestic passengers of 28.7% y/y, was partially offset by a 15.9% drop in international passengers, due to stricter measures for travelers in the US and Canada. Traffic at the 9 airports it operates in Mexico increased slightly by 0.2%, much better than our expectation of a ~27.0% reduction. Cancun airport —76.6% of the total passengers of the 9 airports it operates in Mexico— showed a 4.5% advance. On the other hand, Asur recorded higher annual increases in passengers at LMM Airport of 42.9%, and in Colombia (Airplan) of 22.0%.

Positive implication: Asur's March passengers already showed the inflection point we expected in April. The three countries where it operates far exceeded our estimates, with the operations outside of Mexico performing particularly well. Thus, we will see further growth in the coming months, which we believe could be favored by a faster pace of US vaccinations which could be reflected in less restrictive measures for travelers, and therefore, in a better performance of the company's international traffic. As such, we will be watching for further comments from the company on the demand outlook ahead of its 1Q21 figures on Thursday, April 22nd.