Fixed income strategy: 2023 outlook – virtuous circle

  • Sentiment towards EM has seemingly turned on expectations of a Fed pivot, with a strong November after two brutal years

  • The rally could be premature but, if it plays out as expected (lower yields, weaker USD), EM may enjoy a virtuous circle

  • We also identify 6 countries at high risk of default in 2023: Ghana, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Maldives, Pakistan, Tunisia

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