Ethiopia

Ethiopian bonds fall to fair value; Upgrade to Hold

  • Eurobond has fallen by over 26% since we downgraded to sell in mid-August amid the worsening conflict

  • Little prospect for end to conflict, but bonds now trade at or below recovery value based on “normal” exit yields

  • Risks are broadly balance and bonds now trade in line with fair value; we upgrade to Hold from Sell

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December 7th, 2021
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").

The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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