Sovereign Analysis /
Ethiopia

Ethiopian bonds fall to fair value; Upgrade to Hold

  • Eurobond has fallen by over 26% since we downgraded to sell in mid-August amid the worsening conflict

  • Little prospect for end to conflict, but bonds now trade at or below recovery value based on “normal” exit yields

  • Risks are broadly balance and bonds now trade in line with fair value; we upgrade to Hold from Sell

Ethiopian bonds fall to fair value; Upgrade to Hold
Patrick Curran
Tellimer Research
7 December 2021
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