Ethiopia: Election passes as conflict worsens

  • PM Abiy’s ruling PP won 410 of 436 seats, but boycotts, delays, and irregularities will leave him with a weak mandate

  • Conflict in Tigray continues to worsen, and could spiral into further violence and/or lead to more sanctions

  • Conflict also complicates restructuring plans; retain Hold on eurobond, with risks skewed to downside
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