EM central banks still ahead of the curve but vulnerable as Fed liftoff nears

  • The real interest rate differential between EM and DM continues to rise and EM assets hold up well to more hawkish Fed

  • However, it's unclear when inflation will peak and persistently high inflation could de-anchor expectations in some EM

  • EM central banks must remain vigilant as DM monetary tightening gathers pace in 2022, possibly requiring more hikes
January 18th, 2022
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