Egypt priced for distress: Too harsh but don't expect the army to drive reform

  • Valuation distressed but default unlikely: EGX30 PE 50% below 5- and 10-yr medians but FX reserves 2x s/t external debt

  • Inertia: fiscal cuts and military mega projects are no substitute for capex that drives manufacturing exports and jobs

  • Prevailing valuations are enticing, and tourism and IMF and GCC support are helpful s/t, but deep reform a forlorn hope
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