Equity Analysis /
Egypt

Egypt healthcare and pharma: On the ground update

  • Hospitals: Outpatient clinics and elective cases/surgeries revenues are expected to slow down

  • Pharma producers on average have around 3-6 months of API inventory

  • Manufactures and distributors are currently working with the Ministry of Health to meet the local market demand

Al Ahly Pharos Securities Brokerage
6 April 2020

Partially Immune to the Slowdown

Hospitals: 

  • Outpatient clinics and elective cases/surgeries revenues are expected to slowdown in light of lockdowns and fear of clinical visits.
  • Hospitals are building sufficient inventory levels of medical supplies and medicine.
  • Second quarter is usually a weak quarter, so even if lockdowns and curfew continued during 2Q20; the comparative quarter relative weakness will soften the look of the weakness expected.
  • Private hospitals are not currently allowed to handle Covid-19 cases, however the Ministry of Health has called on private hospitals to seal off wards for the isolation of covid-19 patients, and if cases tested positive, they will be directed to isolation facilities.

Pharma: 

  • Pharma distributors are exempted from curfew restrictions.
  • First quarter is usually a weak quarter, however, during the last 10 days of March, demand on immunity boosters spiked.
  • Pharma producers on average have around 3-6 months of API inventory. 
  • Pharma producers have now been requested to have on hand a 6-months supply of meds before exporting.
  • Manufactures and distributors are currently working with the Ministry of Health to meet the local market demand and securing inventory levels.
  • APIs are usually imported from China, India and Europe. Most producers reported securing high inventory of APIs in Jan 2020, when signs of possible interruptions started to arise in China.