Egypt FX: Outperformed peers... time to worry? No, but unhelpful for exports

  • Egypt FX has outperformed EM and FM peers despite reserves decline, pressure on remittances, tourism, Suez Canal revenue

  • Short-term: import cover high, REER not excessive, real interest rate positive, eurobonds and IMF financing likely ample

  • But long-term transition from gas, remittances and tourism to job-creating exports likely needs much more competitive FX
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