Total Egyptian debt stock declines for the first time since 2008. Total debt stock fell to EGP 6.0 tn in 1Q2019/20, down from EGP 6.1 tn in 4Q2018/19, as domestic debt fell 2.3% QoQ (the first quarterly decline since 1Q2008/09), offsetting the 0.6% QoQ growth in external debt. The bulk of the debt stock remains owed by the government which holds 79% of external debt and 87% of domestic debt.
Total debt fell to 96% of GDP in 1Q2019/20, down from 104% of GDP in 1Q2018/19. The fall is justified both by nominal GDP growth and total debt decline. It is notable that the first quarter of every year reflects generally the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio as debt accumulates through the year over the same annual GDP.
Accordingly, we see the total debt ending FY2019/20 at 112% of GDP and EGP 7.2 tn, down from 115% of GDP in FY2018/19. Along with a slower debt accumulation rate to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 108% of GDP by 2023.
In our attached Debt Monitor for 1Q2019/20 you will find:
- Total Debt Review
- External Debt Review
- Domestic Debt Review
- Debt Service and public debt review
- Treasury and funding of debt
- Debt Adequacy ratios