Eastern Europe EM's equity vulnerable after rallying despite Russia-Ukraine War
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Europe-CIS EM has rallied ytd despite insecurity and fuel import risk and loose economic policy
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Drivers are refugee capital inflows, particularly for Georgia and Kaz, and EU sanctions leverage, for Hungary and Poland
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Equity and FX valuations are stretched vs history, compounded in Romania by negative real rates and high fiscal deficits
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").
The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.