Eastern Europe EM's equity vulnerable after rallying despite Russia-Ukraine War

  • Europe-CIS EM has rallied ytd despite insecurity and fuel import risk and loose economic policy

  • Drivers are refugee capital inflows, particularly for Georgia and Kaz, and EU sanctions leverage, for Hungary and Poland

  • Equity and FX valuations are stretched vs history, compounded in Romania by negative real rates and high fiscal deficits
September 27th, 2023
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