We remain positive over TQM’s outlook. It should achieve strong 2021 earnings growth of 25% YoY to Bt880m through organic business growth and cost reductions yielded by the online platform (we assume a 2021 cost-of-sales/income ratio of 47.5%, down from 49.2% in 2020).
The possibility of additional insurance premium sales growth of Bt8-10bn from insurance brokers that TQM plans to acquire constitutes scope for upside of 6-8% to our 2021 earnings forecast.
Profit was in line with our estimate
TQM posted 1Q21 earnings of Bt202m, up by 12% YoY and 6% QoQ. The result was in line with our estimate (5% above the Bloomberg consensus). The 1Q21 profit comprises 23% of our full-year projection of Bt880m.