Earnings Report /
Thailand

Carabao Group PCL: Disappointing 3Q21 result, recovery ahead in 4Q21

  • Short of all estimates

  • CBG reported core profit of Bt601m for 3Q21

  • We expect YoY earnings flattish with QoQ recovery in 4Q21

Narumon Ekasamut
Narumon Ekasamut

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
15 November 2021

We suggest investors Buy on dip. Despite disappointing result, we expect 1-2% share price correction in the short-term given a 21% sharp share price fall from 4-months high at Bt156 on July 15, 2021. CBG trades at a 2022 PER of 29.9x, below 36.0x for its long-term mean. We maintain BUY a new YE22 DCF target price of Bt155 (down from Bt160 to reflect new model), 6.5% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth.

Short of all estimates

CBG reported core profit of Bt601m for 3Q21, down 34% YoY and down 38% from all-time high core profit of Bt967m in 2Q21. The result fell short of our estimate by 8% due to disappointing GM (actual 34.1% versus our forecast of 38.0%), and 12% below the consensus forecast due to disappointing sales and margins.