In the short run, the stock price may drop on market disappointment over the 3Q21 result. But QH currently trades at 15% below its total investment value—HMPRO (20% stake), LHFG (14%), QHPF (26%), QHHR (31%), and rental property assets of Bt2.74/share. We have a TRADING BUY call with an SOTP-derived target price of Bt2.50, pegged to a residential PER of 9x and investment value of Bt2.3/share (a 15% discount to market value).
Below our estimate and the consensus
QH posted a 3Q21 core profit of Bt263m, down by 54% YoY and 45% QoQ. The result was 37% below our estimate (and 16% shy to the consensus), mainly due to 17% lower sales, 2% slimmer sales GM, and 22% lower equity income than assumed.