The stock price will come under further pressure, due to liquidity risk concerns. ANAN may trade near the RO price of Bt1.55. Our HOLD call stands with a post-RO YE22 target price (25% dilution from the RO, not including ANAN-W1) of Bt1.50, pegged to a PER of 13.5x (a 10% discount to 15.2x, ANAN’s long-term mean).
ANAN reported a net loss of Bt252m for 3Q21, against net profits of Bt292m for 3Q20 and Bt9m for 2Q21. The number was deeper into the red than our estimate of a loss Bt52m (the consensus projection was a loss of Bt162m), due to lower revenue from project management than assumed and because a loss was marked on an investment in a JV.