We have a BUY call on SCB, premised on loan growth in 2023 (driven by retail business), a fatter NIM (led by high-yield lending growth among subsidiaries and higher interest rates), and lighter tax expenses (a high 2022 base). Our dividend yield assumption for 2023 is 4.2%.
Result was 29% below our expectation
SCB reported 4Q22 earnings of Bt7.1bn, down by 9% YoY and 31% QoQ. The result was 29% below our projection (and 30% south of the Bloomberg consensus), due to lower non-NII than assumed (chiefly, losses on financial instruments). Pre-provision operating profit came to Bt17.4bn, down by 21% YoY and 24% QoQ. 2022 earnings comprise 93% of our full-year projection of Bt40.6bn.