We have a BUY call on NCAP, premised on strong lending and earnings expansion (despite deteriorating asset quality). Because we have cut our 2022 profit forecast, our YE22 target price downsizes from Bt10 to Bt8.40, pegged to a PEG ratio of 1.1x (average 2023-24 earnings growth of 30.2%).
Earnings were 29% below our expectation
NCAP posted a 1Q22 profit of Bt65m, down by 12.8% YoY and 25.8% QoQ. The result was 29% below our projection (and 27% shy of the Bloomberg consensus), due to heavier LLPs than expected (we had assumed Bt102m; NCAP set Bt157m). 1Q22 earnings comprise 16% of our old full-year forecast of Bt417m.