The stock price has dived by 33% since the start of the year to Bt2.30. ROI has declined, commission costs have increased, and THREL may possibly have to mark heavy losses on investments in both equities and bonds in 2H20. We don’t see any positive share price drivers at this point. SELL.
Earnings miss, due to heavy claims
THREL reported 2Q20 earnings of Bt6m, down by 88% YoY and 82% QoQ. The result was deeply below our (already very modest) estimate of Bt22m, due mainly to heavier claims than expected. The firm posted claims of Bt412m; we had assumed only Bt390m. 1H20 earnings dived 68% YoY to Bt35m, which represents just 20% of our full-year projection of Bt171m.