BPP’s 2022 core profit outlook is good, but there is some downside risk tied to high and volatile fuel prices (both coal and gas). That said, we expect the battery and EV themes to sustain market interest in the stock going forward, supporting its price.
BPP posted 4Q21 NPAT of Bt371m, down by 69% YoY and 38% QoQ. The reported bottom-line was 52% below our estimate (and 58% short of the consensus), due to lower equity earnings and heavier interest and SG&A expenses than assumed. Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt122m, down by 91% YoY and 55% QoQ. The core number missed our projection by 82% and the street by 77%. BPP will pay a DPS for 2H21 of Bt0.35 (XD Apr 8, payment Apr 27), implying a 2.1% simple yield.