Earnings Report /
Thailand

BTS Group Holdings PCL: Deep 2Q22 miss; 3Q22 core profit to rise QoQ

  • Missed estimates by big margins

  • BTS posted a 2Q22 (Jul-Sep 2022) net profit of Bt474m

  • BTSGIF’s Jul-Sep ridership totaled 40.2m trips

Bualuang Securities
15 November 2022

The Pink and Yellow lines will start operating in FY23. The expenses tied to those lines may squeeze FY22-23 earnings. But the more extensive overall mass-transit system (managed by both BTS and BEM) and heavier mass-transit usage (tied to the post-COVID recovery) will push up BTS’s ridership to new records, mitigating the impact of start-up costs for the Pink and Yellow Lines. And we expect earnings to expand impressively in FY24 (Apr 2024-Mar 2025). Moreover, the mass-transit system of greater Bangkok will continue expanding. Hence, despite the absence of an obvious catalyst in the short run, we still view BTS as a good long-term investment.

Missed estimates by big margins

BTS posted a 2Q22 (Jul-Sep 2022) net profit of Bt474m, down by 18% YoY and 12% QoQ. The reported NPAT was 28% below our estimate (deeper losses at JVs and associates than assumed) and 39% short of the consensus. Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt363m, down by 4% YoY and 39% QoQ. The core number missed our estimate by 45% (losses at JVs and associates) and the consensus by 51%.