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BTS Group Holdings PCL: Core profit missed, but to recover in the quarters ahead

  • Net profit beat estimates, but core earnings missed
  • BTS reported a 4Q20 (Jan-Mar 2021) bottom-line of Bt1,682m, down 52% YoY
  • BTSGIF’s ridership was 28.4m trips, down by 44% YoY and 28% QoQ

The COVID-19 outbreak and the start-ups of the Pink and Yellow lines make for a dull FY21-22 profit outlook. But afterward, BTS’s earnings will expand impressively (operational revenue will rise faster than fixed costs). In the interim, proof of COVID-19 vaccination progress in Thailand would generate positive sentiment toward the stock. And the potential extension of the Green Line concession (most of which is due to expire in 2029) would mean upside to our long-term earnings forecasts and target price. BUY!

Net profit beat estimates, but core earnings missed

BTS reported a 4Q20 (Jan-Mar 2021) bottom-line of Bt1,682m, down 52% YoY (little-changed QoQ). NPAT was 206% ahead of our estimate (much bigger extra gains than assumed) and 125% above the consensus. Stripping out extra gains, the core number would be Bt459m, down 49% YoY but up 34% QoQ. Core profit missed our estimate by 16% (BTS reported smaller revenue and marked weaker performances among associates than we had assumed) and the street by 39%. The firm announced a 2H20 dividend of Bt0.16/share (XD July 23, payment Aug 11), a 1.7% simple yield.


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