GULF earnings profile is largely insulated from gas price volatility. A slate of new IPP capacity will COD, facilitating strong earnings growth. Moreover, the GULF-GUNKUL JV holds Bt5bn in cash and should soon announce new investments. The upcoming PDP2022 will open big investment opportunities. GULF’s digital infrastructure biz (telecoms, data center, and a digital assets exchange) will augment growth. Based on those stories, its earnings CAGR looks set sustain double digits for almost two decades ahead (with only modest downside risks). BUY!
NPAT missed, but the core number beat
GULF reported a 2Q22 net profit of Bt1,531m, up 9% YoY but down 55% QoQ. NPAT was 11% short of our estimate (heavier FX losses than assumed) and 20% below the consensus. Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt3,081m, up 120% YoY but down 5% QoQ. The core number beat our estimate by 6% (higher profits among JVs and associates than assumed) and the street by 9%.