SVI’s 1Q22 weaker results than market expectations will generate a negative sentiment to its stock. We believe that there are 15-20% downside risks to consensus’s earnings projection in 2022. Moreover, after strong 1H22 profits, the firm will enter a soft earnings phase for at least four quarters, 3Q22-2Q23. Our recommendation shifted from HOLD to SELL.
1Q22 core earnings were 33% below our expectation
SVI posted a 1Q22 net profit of Bt262m, up by 77% YoY but down 54% QoQ. Stripping out a Bt49m FX gain, core earnings would be Bt213m, up by 76% YoY but down 62% QoQ. The core number was far below both our estimate of Bt389m and the consensus projection of Bt403m, led by slimmer GM than we had assumed.