Our TRADING BUY stands, in anticipation of the YoY earnings rise to be resumed in 4Q22, following the year’s nadir in 1Q22.
Core profit missed our model
TFM posted a 2Q22 net profit of Bt34m, down 30% YoY but above the Bt1m in 1Q22. Excluding extra items in 2Q22—Bt15m in deferred tax asset of its two subsidiaries and Bt3m in net FX gain—core profit was Bt16m, down 67% YoY but up 215% QoQ. Net profit beat our model by 36% due to the deferred tax asset item while core profit missed our estimate by 37% (against our Bt25m previous forecast), thanks to lower GM than modeled. Sales beat our estimate by 5%. GM of 7.2% missed our 8% estimate (against 9.2% in 2Q21 and 7% in 1Q22).