Despite a 52% share price rally YTD, we suggest investors ‘let profit run’ on the tailwind of the best quarterly result of the year in 4Q21 and stronger 1Q22 outlook with high visibility in Maldives hotel booking and Thailand. CENTEL is the best play in the leading hotel performances recovery in Maldives (the highest portion in the sector). We maintain BUY rating at a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt40 (10% discount to DCF value, based on 6.8% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth).
Short of our estimate but in line with the street forecast
CENTEL reported net loss of Bt803m in 3Q21 versus net losses of Bt897m in 3Q20 and of Bt606m in 2Q21. Excluding a Bt147m extra expenses (Bt97m FX loss and Bt50m compensation for layoffs), core loss in 3Q21 was Bt656m against core losses of Bt841m in 3Q20 and of Bt651m in 2Q21. Core loss was in line with the consensus, but short of our loss forecast of BtBt482m due to disappointing revenue and GM.