Vacation was great, staying at The Middle Way & featuring a visit from a bear – a real live, black bear (check out the 23 charts/tables).
Recession call & Fed pivot talk premature post July jobs #; we continue to focus on the positive impact of a high nominal growth regime.
The earnings bridge we wrote about two weeks ago is intact with Q2 US and EU EPS up 10% and 22% Y/Y respectively while sales growth is running at 15% and 36%. Hard to see stocks down with these types of reports.
3 Tri Polar World keys for 2nd H: how fast US inflation rolls over; the path of European energy prices and the potential for China to learn to live with Covid.
We remain constructive on risk assets looking out to YE; near term markets have moved a lot, a period of digestion would be healthy.