Strategy Note /
Global

Coincidence? I Hope Not

  • Vacationing at "The Middle Way" after writing about the "middle way" path forward for months - quite the coincidence.

  • 3 Tri Polar World keys for 2H: US inflation rollover; EU energy price path; China's ability to live with Covid

  • High nominal growth regime, earnings bridge, desynchronized global economy keep us constructive on risk for 2H

Jay Pelosky
Jay Pelosky

TPW Founder & Global Strategist

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TPW Advisory
5 August 2022
Published byTPW Advisory

Vacation was great, staying at The Middle Way & featuring a visit from a bear – a real live, black bear (check out the 23 charts/tables).

 

Recession call & Fed pivot talk premature post July jobs #; we continue to focus on the positive impact of a high nominal growth regime.

 

The earnings bridge  we wrote about two weeks ago is intact with Q2 US and EU EPS up 10% and 22% Y/Y respectively while sales growth is running at 15% and 36%. Hard to see stocks down with these types of reports.

 

3 Tri Polar World keys for 2nd H: how fast US inflation rolls over; the path of European energy prices and the potential for China to learn to live with Covid.

 

We remain constructive on risk assets looking out to YE; near term markets have moved a lot, a period of digestion would be healthy.