Strategy Note /
China

CN : Strategy - Learning from history

    Mark Po
    Mark Po

    Research Analyst

    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    We believe investors might question whether stocks will continue to do well after the recent rebound, triggered partly by a positive message released by the Chinese government. In this report, we use the situation in 2018 (with tensions escalating between China and US, interest rate hikes, and weak stock market performance) to compare with the current situation. The meeting initiated by Chinese government marked the trough of the stock market, but sustained movement was due to increasing clarity on macro issues and policies released by the Chinese government. The SSE and HSI were up 15.3% and 4.5%, respectively, a year after the Chinese government held meetings to boost market sentiment. We believe the market will remain volatile, given geopolitical issues, concerns about global liquidity movement, and a potential downward revision of net profit forecasts. However, we also reiterate the view that the pro-growth policy of the Chinese government will provide support for Chinese companies and the HK market for a further rebound (link). We prefer biotech companies with a strong RD pipeline and exposure to the COVID-19 vaccine and treatment segment. Equipment and industrial commodities are expected to benefit from the pro-growth policy. The analysis in this report is based on industry and macro figures and may differ from the views of individual analysts, in some cases.