CN : Strategy - Economic recovery expected to continue in 2Q21; 2H21 will depend on the property sector

Following GDP growth of 18.3% yoy in 1Q21, we expect GDP growth to remain strong at 9% yoy in 2Q21, supported by domestic recovery and solid export demand. Export growth is likely to weaken in 2H21 if more countries resume production. The property sector will play an important role for the economy in 2H21. Currently, we expect GDP to grow 6.5% and 6.2% yoy in 3Q and 4Q21. The recovery in retail sales has been relatively slow. We expect retail sales to grow 8% in 2021, implying 5% growth yoy for the remaining three quarters. We see little pressure on the CPI but the PPI may reach 6% in 2Q and 3Q21 before falling in 4Q. Property investment has been strong ytd and we expect full-year growth of about 5–6%. (The materials in this note were extracted from the CGS Research team.)

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