Equity Analysis /

CN : Ind Goods & Services - Mar 22 trade growth moderated further; weaker import figures are an alert

    Mark Po
    Mark Po

    Research Analyst

    13 April 2022
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    China headline export growth in US$ terms rose 14.7% in Mar 22, slowing from 16.3% yoy in Jan–Feb 22 and 20.9% yoy in Dec 21, but higher than market expectations. In the key segments we track, the yoy growth rate of PCs, smartphones and textiles picked up from Jan–Feb 22, while the yoy growth of garment exports slowed down. The yoy decline in exports of home appliances widened in Mar 22 from Jan–Feb 22. Imports reported negative yoy growth of 0.1% vs. +15.5% yoy in Jan–Feb 22, missing market expectations. IC imports slowed down to 6.9% yoy growth in Mar 22 from 19.2% in Jan–Feb and 27.2% yoy in Dec 21. The Mar 22 trade figures continued to provide mixed signals (stronger-than-expected exports but somewhat weak imports) in our view. The slowdown in exports was somewhat expected, but the weaker overall import figures may create concerns about domestic demand in China. This analysis is based on industry and macro figures and may differ from the views of individual analysts, in some cases.