Equity Analysis /

Total Access Communication PCL: Clear sky for TRUE-DTAC amalgamation go-ahead

  • Only TRUE still aggressive on mobile pricing in 3Q22

  • Service revenue expected to rise both YoY and QoQ in 3Q22

  • Insights into 3Q22—core profit to rise YoY and QoQ

Bualuang Securities
30 September 2022

The recently given opinion of the Council of the State will pave the way for TRUE-DTAC amalgamation deal to proceed without requiring approval from the NBTC (only need to inform the NBTC). The next step is to await NBTC’s issuance of remedial measures it deems necessary. DTAC’s service revenue recovery is on track with its improving 2H22 core earnings. Our TRADING BUY stands, based on the amalgamation progress and the cheap valuation—EV/EBITDA of 5.9x vs its recent high of 7.2x in Oct 2015.

Only TRUE still aggressive on mobile pricing in 3Q22

The mobile competition has been stable QoQ in 3Q22. Only TRUE has offered aggressive pricing promotions during 2Q-3Q22. For postpaid and prepaid packages, ADVANC and DTAC have removed the “free all-network voice call” feature for most locations in the provinces since 3Q22 but TRUE has continued to offer it in 3Q22. ADVANC has also removed its cheaper-priced postpaid packs including “Bt300 for 10Mbps speed” and “Bt499 for 15Mbps speed” since Jul 2022 and moved those customers to the 5G pack of Bt399 with 30GB usage. TRUE has aggressively launched the tourist SIM package featuring 14-day unlimited data and voice usage which both ADVANC and DTAC have not imitated. It is a good sign that two operators are trying to uplift prices by removing low-priced packs and the “free all-net voice call” feature.