Macro Analysis / Turkey

Charting Turkey’s currency crisis

  • Turkey’s credit-fuelled growth model has led to unsustainable credit growth, high inflation and external imbalances
  • Covid-19 triggered a currency adjustment, with CBRT interventions draining reserves and causing market dislocations
  • CBRT is tightening by the backdoor, but TRY pressure will persist while CBRT avoids rate hikes due to low credibility
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a res...

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