Macro Analysis /
Bulgaria

Bulgarian Economy Q2 2021

    Contributors
    Mihail Dimitrov
    Martin Dimitrov
    First Financial Brokerage House
    29 September 2021

    Q2 GDP REBOUNDED SOLIDLY AS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GAINED MOMENTUM; INFLATION GREW 2.4% YOY ALONG WITH CONTINUING UPWARD TREND IN ENERGY PRICES

     The economy accelerated significantly by 6.4% YoY in Q2 as restrictions were gradually relaxed, underpinned by faster increase in final consumption and investments in fixed assets, as well as a recovery in external demand.
     Current account balance turned into deficit of 0.6% of GDPe compared with a surplus of 1% of GDP a year ago.  Jun’21 HICP index added 2.4% YoY, while 12-month average inflation stood at 0.8%.  Increasing export and import resulted into a higher YoY trade deficit of BGN 2bn. H1’21 deficit climbed to 3.3bn.  Unemployment rate came to 5.6%, decreasing by 0.2% p.p. in June 2021.  Higher revenues (+18.1% YoY) in Q2 resulted in a budget surplus of BGN 0.1bn (0.1% of GDPe).  The government debt stood at 23.4% of GDPe in end Q2’21 (BGN 14.9bn), vs 20.7% of GDP a year earlier.