Brazil election risk: About how the loser concedes, not fiscal policy pivots

  • 2 October election: Leftist Lula's opinion poll lead over rightist incumbent Bolsonaro has shrunk, but is still large

  • Both are likely equally populist, fiscally. The main uncertainty is whether Bolsonaro's exit will be orderly if he loses

  • Brazil tops large EM performance ytd (high commodity prices, credible monetary policy) and is still cheap versus history
September 18th, 2022
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