Brazil: Bolsanaro’s better-than-expected vote takes election to 2nd round

  • Incumbent Bolsonaro scored 43% vs pre-election polls of 31-41; run-off with Lula (48% actual vs 44-50% polls) on 30 Oct

  • Neither candidate commands a majority in Congress; eg in lower house Rightist bloc is 36%, Centrist 31%, Leftist 27%

  • Initial reaction might be positive but both candidates promise similar fiscal policy. Brazil equities and FX still cheap
October 3rd, 2022
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