Earnings Report /
Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL: Better than we expected! But metrics are stretched

  • Earnings beat our estimate and the consensus

  • BDMS reported a record core profit of Bt3.4bn for 1Q22

  • 2Q22 core earnings are expected to rise YoY but fall QoQ

Phoowadol Phoosodngern
Bualuang Securities
12 May 2022

If the record 1Q22 profit were to trigger a BDMS stock price rally, it would open an opportunity to lock in profits. The 1Q22 result is likely to prove the peak of 2022. The stock price has risen 12% YTD (following an 11% rally in 2021); it now trades at near its pre-COVID era level (Bt25.50 on Jan 10, 2020). BDMS’s 2022 core PER is now 45.6x—far above the 33.4x mean of our Healthcare coverage. We maintain a HOLD call with a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt26 (WACC of 7.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2%).

Earnings beat our estimate and the consensus

BDMS reported a record core profit of Bt3.4bn for 1Q22, up by 157% YoY and 23% QoQ. The result beat our estimate by 10% (due to a lower SG&A/sales ratio than we had assumed) and was 13% ahead of the consensus.