TAV Holding posted EUR52mn net income in 2Q22, higher than our estimate of EUR33mn and consensus of EUR30mn net income. Deviation was mainly due to EUR24mn higher than expected revenue and EBITDA.
The company reported EUR96mn EBITDA, 14% higher than our estimate of EUR85mn and 27% higher than consensus estimate of EUR76mn.
According to the CEO Kaptan’s statement, Almaty, which had a stellar second quarter due to increased traffic resulting from the geopolitical challenges was an important factor in their excellent results. However, the company expect a more normalized financial performance from Almaty in the coming quarters. Throughout the year, Russian traffic has improved materially and the latest weekly recovery level is now at 49% for TAV and 55% for Antalya compared to 2019 levels. The company have also observed that the loss of Russian and Ukrainian traffic has been partially compensated with very strong traffic from the UK, Germany, Poland, Kazakhstan, Israel and the rest of Europe. With these developments, Antalya reached 80% of 2019 international traffic level during the month of June.
The revenue increased by 175% y/y to EUR262mn in 2Q22. Total PAX excluding IAA was up by 127% y/y in 2Q22 to 19.9mn from 8.8mn in 2Q21. International PAX increased by 218% y/y in 2Q22 to 12.7mn from 4.0mn in 2Q21. Domestic PAX increased by 50% y/y to 7.2mn in 2Q22 from 4.8mn in 2Q21.
After 2Q22 results the company management revized up its EBITDA guidance due to upward revision to its revenue guidance supported by Almaty operations. The company management revised up its renevue guidance to EUR900-940mn from EUR717-745mn for 2022E (ATA Est.: EUR833.3mn). The company management revised up also its EBITDA guidance to EUR252-291 from EUR229-261mn for 2022E (ATA Est.: EUR277.2mn). Management management revised down its EBITDA margin guidance to 28-31% from 32-35% for 2022E (ATA Est.: 33.3%).Management maintained its PAX guidance at 71-76mn for 2022E (ATA Est.: 73.4mn). The company guides >EUR50mn net income for 2022E (ATA Est: EUR82.1mn)
Net debt increased q/q to EUR1,643mn in 2Q22 from EUR1,631mn in 1Q22.