Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Land & Houses PCL: Best ResProp play for 4Q22; 2023 will be LH’s year!

  • Anticipate an exciting 2023 business plan; focus on low-rise

  • Low condo inventory; no new condo completions slated for 2023

  • 2023 will be LH’s year: a fatter GM and better hotel numbers

Bualuang Securities
23 December 2022

The 2023 business plan will be more exciting, focused on low-rise. But LH’s condo inventory is very low and no new condo is slated for completion in 2023, so the firm will also have a new high-rise launch plan. 2023 will be LH’s year—a fatter GM and a full hotel recovery.

Anticipate an exciting 2023 business plan; focus on low-rise

LH’s 2022 launch value was an eight-year-high of Bt32.5bn, up 65% YoY (100% low-rise; no condo starts in 2022). Its actual aggregate launch value for the year was 10% above the original plan that management unveiled in early 2022 totaling Bt29bn, thanks to the features of buyers (almost all purchased units as primary dwellings, not as speculative punts to flip ahead of transference or as rental properties). In 2023, LH will launch more projects—its net gearing ratio is below 1x, so it has plenty of headroom to take on new debt. In 2023, low-rise launch value will be in the Bt32-34bn range, flattish YoY. But LH will also launch new condos next year, in order to cater to the ongoing post-COVID demand recovery for high-rise dwellings.