Our HOLD rating stands, but we have cut our YE22 target price from Bt5.30 to Bt4.80, as we have de-rated our PER valuation peg from 11x to 10x (LPN’s long-term mean)—there is considerable uncertainty over the outlook, given prevailing high inflation and the likelihood of higher interest rates on home mortgages. That said, based on our earnings forecast and LPN’s historical payout rate, we assume a generous dividend for 2022 of 7.7%.
Beat our estimate and the consensus
LPN reported a 1Q22 net profit of Bt191m, up by 56% YoY and 497% QoQ. Excluding one-time gains, core earnings would be B190m, up 55% YoY and 492% QoQ. The result was 16% above our estimate (and 6% ahead of the street), due to a higher top-line and a lower SG&A/sales ratio than modeled.