Our TRADING BUY stands, in anticipation of the YoY earnings rise which will resume in 1Q23, following the earnings nadir in 1Q22.
Exceeded our model significantly
TFM posted a 3Q22 net profit of Bt58m, down 17% YoY but up a robust 71% QoQ. Excluding extra items in 3Q22—Bt10m in impairment loss from trade receivables and Bt1m in net FX gain—core profit was Bt66m, down 22% YoY but up a striking 322% QoQ. Net and core profits beat our model by 67% and 125%, respectively, due to higher GM than modeled. Sales beat our estimate by 2%. GM of 11.1% exceeded our 8.5% estimate (against 11.5% in 3Q21 and 7.2% in 2Q22).