When EGAT stops taking the burden of gas costs in 2023, the electricity price will rise sharply. Our model points to GPSC’s 2023 core earnings bouncing back stronger than in 2021, driven by greater IU demand and revenue generation at new capacity. The weakest quarter is now behind us, we believe. BUY!
Beat our estimates, but missed the street
GPSC posted a 3Q22 net profit of Bt331m, down by 82% YoY and 52% QoQ. The reported NPAT was massively above our estimate (lighter FX losses and higher revenue than assumed), but missed the consensus projection. Stripping out extra items, core earnings would be Bt392m, down by 80% YoY and 32% QoQ. The core number was massively above our estimate (higher revenue than assumed), but was short of the consensus.