CHG’s stock priced rose on Friday, which we think has priced in the street-beating result. We suggest selling on fact, as the outlook is unexciting—earnings will decline YoY in 2022 and 2023. We have downgraded our rating from BUY to HOLD and cut our YE22 DCF-derived target price from Bt4.60 to Bt4 (6.9% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth).
Far above our estimate and the consensus
CHG posted a core profit of Bt1,356m for 1Q22, up 439% YoY but down 25% QoQ. The result was 35% above our estimate and 19% ahead of the consensus (revenue was 15% higher and GM 2.6% fatter than we had assumed).