Earnings Report /

Thaifoods Group PCL: Beat all estimates; robust 4Q22 earnings ahead

  • Exceeded our model

  • TFG posted a 3Q22 net profit of Bt1.73bn

  • We model a Bt1.02bn 4Q22 core profit

Bualuang Securities
10 November 2022

Our TRADING BUY stands, based on its stronger YoY core earnings to continue through 1H23 1turnaround and its cheap valuation—2023 PER of 5.6x.  

Exceeded our model

TFG posted a 3Q22 net profit of Bt1.73bn, a YoY turnaround from 3Q21 net loss of Bt456m and up 40% QoQ. Excluding extra items in 3Q22—Bt265m FX loss, Bt211m gain on biological assets, Bt3m in asset impairment expense, Bt52m loss from a change in fair value of financial assets and Bt4m in reversal of loss on land value appraisal—it posted a Bt1.84bn 3Q22 core profit, against Bt213m core loss in 3Q21 and up 21% QoQ. Net and core profits beat our estimates by 16% and 15%, respectively, thanks to higher sales and lower SG&A expenses than estimated. Sales beat our model by 7% led by higher-than-modeled chicken and pork sales. GM of 21.2% was close to 21.3% estimate (4.1% in 3Q21 and 22.3% in 2Q22). After-tax profit beat our model by 16%.