Macro Analysis /
Bangladesh

Bangladesh 2023 Strategy Note : Perseverance amid Uncertainty

  • The verdicts of global events remain undecided, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and indecision.

  • There are two ways for investors to deal with uncertainty. Either panic or persevere. We would recommend the latter.

  • We expect that this report will serve as a mental map for tenacious investors.

Shopnil Paul
Shopnil Paul

Research Associate

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IDLC Securities
2 January 2023
Published byIDLC Securities

Those who believed that the Mayan prophesy of doomsday would come true in 2012 must be disappointed! But the world is not, as it always finds a way to move on. The wheel of time has made 2008 financial crisis a history and COVID-19 a recent memory.

Yet the uncertainty that started with the pandemic has stretched out to 2022. Throughout the year, we witnessed the onset of Russia-Ukraine war, spiraling commodity prices, falling currency and forex reserve, astonishing inflation, energy crisis, rising treasury interest rates and declining money supply. Unsurprisingly, Bangladesh stock market experienced 8.1% yoy decline in index, 12.4% yoy decline in earnings (9M’22 vs 9M’21), and 34.7% yoy dent in turnover.

As we enter 2023, the verdicts of global events remain undecided, leading to an extended period of uncertainty and indecision.

There are two ways for investors to deal with uncertainty. Either panic or persevere. We would recommend the latter.

We expect that this report will serve as a mental map for tenacious investors. The report –

Starts with a retrospection of 2022

  • Assesses how Bangladesh measures in comparison with the peers and suggests that the market, overall, may not be overpriced when compared to its history

  • Discusses about 3 major concerns – interest rate, global commodity prices, currency depreciation & forex reserve and discovers any possible silver linings

  • Explores investment ideas and top picks