Strategy Note / Global

Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous

  • No question of Bahrain breaking ranks and risking the bilateral financial support from Saudi et al on which it depends
  • Saudi signal more important but ambiguous: either this is as far as it will go or Bahrain is a test for citizen reaction
  • Context for normalisation (not "peace deals") is shared suspicion of Iran, alignment with the US, and a Biden hedge
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